Tommy Novak vs William Karlsson
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Novak wins 43.2% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Novak 43.0% vs Karlsson 51.3% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Karlsson leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 93.6%
Defensive zone
Novak 85.5%
Neutral zone
Novak 87.4%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 88.7%
88.7%
11.3%
Novak
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Novak
Karlsson
Last 10: Novak 2-8 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
2
Novak
Karlsson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
3
Novak
Karlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
3
Novak
Karlsson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Novak
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (1,568)
51.8% (7,849)
-10.0%
Power Play
51.5% (134)
54.8% (1,048)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
44.2% (1,109)
+5.8%
On even strength, Karlsson has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,093).
Novak shoots left. Karlsson is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,551).
Home / Away
Novak
Karlsson
Home
45.1% (831)
52.0% (5,090)
Away
40.2% (873)
50.5% (4,916)
By Period
Novak
Karlsson
P1
43.7%
50.3%
P2
42.8%
51.3%
P3
41.1%
52.4%
OT
57.1%
44.9%
Final 5 min
40.1%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 16:43 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 2 | 09:18 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Apr 4, 2023 | OT | 02:53 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 2 | 08:12 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 02:55 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 02:35 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 16:29 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 02:24 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 15:55 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 07:58 | Offensive | William Karlsson |