Scouting Report
Tyler Bozak holds a +14.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Bozak on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Zegras wins 38.3% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zegras 39.5% vs Bozak 53.4% (-14.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 78.9%
Defensive zone
Zegras 54.8%
Neutral zone
Zegras 82.6%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 62.9%
62.9%
37.1%
Zegras
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Zegras
Bozak
Last 6: Zegras 1-5 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Zegras
Bozak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
4
Zegras
Bozak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zegras
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
39.0% (1,703)
53.7% (9,596)
-14.7%
Power Play
38.5% (148)
55.2% (1,990)
-16.7%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (8)
48.0% (1,094)
-23.0%
On penalty kill, Bozak has a +23.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Zegras is 38.3% vs right-shot opponents (605).
Zegras shoots left. Bozak is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,417).
Home / Away
Zegras
Bozak
Home
40.5% (908)
56.0% (6,333)
Away
37.3% (951)
51.0% (6,396)
By Period
Zegras
Bozak
P1
40.0%
53.2%
P2
38.6%
52.8%
P3
38.2%
54.5%
OT
31.6%
52.9%
Final 5 min
40.1%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
38.9%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2022 | 2 | 18:08 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| May 5, 2021 | 3 | 04:15 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| May 5, 2021 | 2 | 00:30 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| May 5, 2021 | 1 | 06:13 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 12:25 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| May 3, 2021 | 2 | 10:02 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |