Scouting Report
Tyson Jost holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Zegras on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Zegras wins 39.1% vs left-shot opponents — Jost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zegras 39.5% vs Jost 40.5% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 78.3%
Defensive zone
Jost 81.9%
Neutral zone
Jost 52.8%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 55.2%
55.2%
44.8%
Zegras
Jost
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Zegras
Jost
Last 8: Zegras 4-4 Jost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jost
1
2
Zegras
Jost
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jost
0
1
Zegras
Jost
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zegras
3
1
Zegras
Jost
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zegras
Jost
Edge
Even Strength
39.0% (1,703)
41.0% (2,016)
-2.0%
Power Play
38.5% (148)
34.2% (73)
+4.3%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (8)
35.2% (256)
-10.2%
On penalty kill, Jost has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jost shoots left. Zegras is 39.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,252).
Zegras shoots left. Jost is 40.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,469).
Home / Away
Zegras
Jost
Home
40.5% (908)
41.9% (1,240)
Away
37.3% (951)
38.1% (1,105)
By Period
Zegras
Jost
P1
40.0%
38.5%
P2
38.6%
41.1%
P3
38.2%
40.9%
OT
31.6%
40.0%
Final 5 min
40.1%
38.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
38.9%
Jost
38.0%▼
41.5%
40.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2023 | 3 | 15:21 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 3 | 11:20 | Offensive | Tyson Jost |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 2 | 06:12 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 1 | 12:02 | Offensive | Tyson Jost |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 01:04 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 17:39 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |