Scouting Report
Yanni Gourde holds a +12.6% FO% edge overall. Zegras wins 32.5% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zegras 37.0% vs Gourde 46.0% (-12.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 89.0%
Defensive zone
Gourde 59.3%
Neutral zone
Zegras 69.8%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 55.2%
55.2%
44.8%
Zegras
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Zegras
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Zegras
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Zegras
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zegras
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
33.0% (264)
47.2% (687)
-14.2%
Power Play
32.1% (56)
45.0% (20)
-12.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
33.0% (88)
+17.0%
On penalty kill, Zegras has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Zegras is 32.5% vs left-shot opponents (200).
Zegras shoots left. Gourde is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (522).
Home / Away
Zegras
Gourde
Home
35.3% (173)
44.4% (356)
Away
30.2% (149)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Zegras
Gourde
P1
33.0%
42.2%
P2
35.7%
50.0%
P3
29.7%
44.5%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
29.4%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
32.9%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 19:05 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 13:37 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |