Scouting Report
Yanni Gourde holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on neutral-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings). Zegras wins 39.1% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zegras 39.5% vs Gourde 48.2% (-9.3%)
H2H factor
Gourde leads 19-10 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Zegras 90.1%
Defensive zone
Zegras 51.8%
Neutral zone
Zegras 88.9%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 76.4%
76.4%
23.6%
Zegras
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
19
(29 meetings)
10
19
Zegras
Gourde
Last 10: Zegras 2-8 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
6
2
Zegras
Gourde
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
2
8
Zegras
Gourde
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
2
9
Zegras
Gourde
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zegras
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
39.0% (1,703)
48.4% (4,987)
-9.4%
Power Play
38.5% (148)
57.4% (376)
-18.9%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (8)
40.0% (555)
-15.0%
On power play, Gourde has a +18.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Zegras is 39.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,252).
Zegras shoots left. Gourde is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,967).
Home / Away
Zegras
Gourde
Home
40.5% (908)
49.3% (2,949)
Away
37.3% (951)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Zegras
Gourde
P1
40.0%
49.8%
P2
38.6%
47.5%
P3
38.2%
47.5%
OT
31.6%
37.0%
Final 5 min
40.1%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
38.9%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 19:05 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 13:37 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 09:28 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 07:17 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 19:21 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 15:57 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 15:53 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 04:50 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 1 | 14:46 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 12:37 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 15:55 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 05:08 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 16:51 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 08:24 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 10:02 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 13:26 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 09:39 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 05:05 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 27, 2022 | 2 | 09:30 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 3 | 18:04 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |