Nathan MacKinnon vs Vincent Trocheck
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Vincent Trocheck holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Trocheck on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). MacKinnon wins 46.0% vs right-shot opponents — Trocheck shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Trocheck 56.2% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Trocheck leads 17-5 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 89.1%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 86.4%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 82.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 85.4%
85.4%
14.6%
MacKinnon
Trocheck
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
17
(22 meetings)
5
17
MacKinnon
Trocheck
Last 10: MacKinnon 1-9 Trocheck
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Trocheck
2
4
MacKinnon
Trocheck
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Trocheck
0
7
MacKinnon
Trocheck
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Trocheck
3
6
MacKinnon
Trocheck
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Trocheck
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,029)
58.0% (666)
-8.3%
Power Play
64.3% (154)
64.8% (165)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
43.4% (152)
-9.0%
On penalty kill, Trocheck has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Trocheck shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (339).
MacKinnon shoots right. Trocheck is 55.6% vs right-shot opponents (315).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Trocheck
Home
53.1% (606)
55.3% (436)
Away
49.1% (609)
58.1% (547)
By Period
MacKinnon
Trocheck
P1
49.4%
56.4%
P2
52.8%
58.7%
P3
50.8%
55.5%
OT
66.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
56.6%
55.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
51.5%
51.1%
Trocheck
62.0%▲
55.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 19:18 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 10:29 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 17:53 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 17:34 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 12:50 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 03:34 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 19:08 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 18:45 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 18:35 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 16:22 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 16:06 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 04:50 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 00:51 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 18:54 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 06:54 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 05:31 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |