Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 44.4% vs Karlsson 45.8% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 72.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 61.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 63.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 63.3%
63.3%
36.7%
Nelson
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Nelson
Karlsson
Last 8: Nelson 2-6 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
1
Nelson
Karlsson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Karlsson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
3
Nelson
Karlsson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (688)
47.2% (786)
-4.2%
Power Play
54.8% (42)
54.5% (11)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (61)
35.6% (163)
+8.7%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Nelson is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (505).
Nelson shoots left. Karlsson is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (589).
Home / Away
Nelson
Karlsson
Home
41.9% (391)
46.4% (478)
Away
45.5% (400)
44.2% (482)
By Period
Nelson
Karlsson
P1
47.1%
44.8%
P2
43.0%
45.6%
P3
40.9%
45.5%
Final 5 min
43.6%
44.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
43.7%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
45.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2017 | 3 | 02:32 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 2 | 18:11 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 2 | 18:03 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 2 | 13:51 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 24, 2017 | 1 | 12:27 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Jan 24, 2017 | 1 | 08:55 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Jan 24, 2017 | 1 | 02:06 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 10, 2016 | 1 | 09:32 | Offensive | William Karlsson |