Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Johnston wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Johnston 48.0% vs Gourde 46.0% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnston 64.6%
Defensive zone
Gourde 66.1%
Neutral zone
Gourde 53.5%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 57.7%
42.3%
57.7%
Johnston
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Johnston
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Johnston
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Johnston
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Johnston
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (666)
47.2% (687)
+0.1%
Power Play
50.7% (69)
45.0% (20)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (35)
33.0% (88)
+18.4%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Johnston is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Johnston shoots right. Gourde is 43.8% vs right-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Johnston
Gourde
Home
47.5% (364)
44.4% (356)
Away
48.0% (406)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Johnston
Gourde
P1
49.4%
42.2%
P2
46.9%
50.0%
P3
47.1%
44.5%
OT
47.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
46.6%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
47.8%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | 2 | 04:51 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 1 | 10:45 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 04:44 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |