Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.9% vs 48.2%). Look for Johnston on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Johnston 49.0% vs Gourde 48.2% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Johnston leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Gourde 52.5%
Defensive zone
Johnston 52.4%
Neutral zone
Johnston 50.2%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
Johnston
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
6
(15 meetings)
9
6
Johnston
Gourde
Last 10: Johnston 5-5 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
6
4
Johnston
Gourde
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
3
2
Johnston
Gourde
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Johnston
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (2,232)
48.4% (4,987)
+0.7%
Power Play
52.5% (179)
57.4% (376)
-4.9%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (237)
40.0% (555)
+4.7%
On power play, Gourde has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Johnston is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,999).
Johnston shoots right. Gourde is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,950).
Home / Away
Johnston
Gourde
Home
49.2% (1,332)
49.3% (2,949)
Away
48.7% (1,316)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Johnston
Gourde
P1
50.0%
49.8%
P2
48.1%
47.5%
P3
48.6%
47.5%
OT
51.5%
37.0%
Final 5 min
48.6%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
48.9%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | 2 | 04:51 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 1 | 10:45 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 04:44 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 11:47 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 04:39 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 2 | 08:19 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 06:31 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 3 | 19:38 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 2 | 08:33 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 03:21 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 13, 2023 | 3 | 15:27 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 13, 2023 | 1 | 00:28 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:47 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 12:57 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 06:40 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |