Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 49.6% vs Frost 56.4% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 66.9%
Defensive zone
Frost 73.0%
Neutral zone
Frost 64.4%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 73.0%
27.0%
73.0%
Fantilli
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Fantilli
Frost
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
1
0
Fantilli
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (887)
56.0% (755)
-6.6%
Power Play
51.4% (105)
60.1% (173)
-8.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (12)
88.9% (9)
-38.9%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +38.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Fantilli is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (657).
Fantilli shoots left. Frost is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (647).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Frost
Home
50.7% (503)
57.3% (497)
Away
48.5% (501)
56.8% (440)
By Period
Fantilli
Frost
P1
47.0%
60.2%
P2
52.5%
56.0%
P3
49.7%
54.8%
OT
33.3%
63.6%
Final 5 min
50.9%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.6%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 18:22 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |