Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.3% vs Frost 50.6% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 52.6%
Defensive zone
Frost 54.5%
Neutral zone
Frost 51.8%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 52.9%
47.1%
52.9%
Fantilli
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Fantilli
Frost
Last 10: Fantilli 4-6 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
3
Fantilli
Frost
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
3
1
Fantilli
Frost
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Fantilli
Frost
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,179)
49.7% (3,652)
-5.0%
Power Play
51.4% (210)
55.4% (632)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (26)
55.0% (40)
-24.2%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +24.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Fantilli is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,604).
Fantilli shoots left. Frost is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,843).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Frost
Home
47.3% (1,209)
51.4% (2,101)
Away
42.9% (1,206)
49.8% (2,223)
By Period
Fantilli
Frost
P1
43.8%
51.2%
P2
46.3%
51.3%
P3
45.9%
48.8%
OT
25.8%
64.9%
Final 5 min
43.9%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
45.1%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 18:22 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 14, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 00:19 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 00:34 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 12:34 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 01:41 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 2 | 01:46 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 3 | 15:37 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 3 | 09:17 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 2 | 04:49 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 2 | 02:19 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 1 | 12:43 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |