Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings). Fantilli wins 42.2% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 42.0% vs Dowd 49.9% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 13-7 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 92.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 66.6%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 77.4%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 76.2%
76.2%
23.8%
Fantilli
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
13
(20 meetings)
7
13
Fantilli
Dowd
Last 10: Fantilli 4-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
4
3
Fantilli
Dowd
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Fantilli
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
7
Fantilli
Dowd
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (934)
52.2% (835)
-11.5%
Power Play
52.1% (73)
60.0% (10)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (12)
44.0% (350)
-27.3%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +27.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Fantilli is 42.2% vs right-shot opponents (332).
Fantilli shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Dowd
Home
44.1% (488)
51.5% (619)
Away
38.6% (531)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Fantilli
Dowd
P1
42.0%
51.7%
P2
43.0%
51.6%
P3
39.3%
47.0%
OT
11.1%
22.2%
Final 5 min
38.3%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
58.0%▲
51.0%
41.2%
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 05:38 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 05:25 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 16:03 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 14:36 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 07:50 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 07:42 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 00:37 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 1 | 18:33 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 1 | 06:51 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 1 | 03:36 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |