Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Fantilli wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 49.6% vs Dowd 48.6% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 90.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 83.4%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 60.2%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 84.1%
84.1%
15.9%
Fantilli
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Fantilli
Dowd
Last 5: Fantilli 5-0 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
4
0
Fantilli
Dowd
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fantilli
1
0
Fantilli
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (887)
51.0% (671)
-1.6%
Power Play
51.4% (105)
0.0% (2)
+51.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (12)
41.5% (224)
+8.5%
On power play, Fantilli has a +51.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Fantilli is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (347).
Fantilli shoots left. Dowd is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Dowd
Home
50.7% (503)
48.2% (471)
Away
48.5% (501)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Fantilli
Dowd
P1
47.0%
48.3%
P2
52.5%
46.8%
P3
49.7%
51.0%
OT
33.3%
30.0%
Final 5 min
50.9%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.6%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 19:13 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 14:44 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 3 | 10:20 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 14:57 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 1 | 19:30 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |