Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 15 meetings). Fantilli wins 46.7% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.3% vs Dowd 50.7% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 18-17 in 35 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 83.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 57.8%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 54.1%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 63.5%
63.5%
36.5%
Fantilli
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
18
(35 meetings)
17
18
Fantilli
Dowd
Last 10: Fantilli 7-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
12
3
Fantilli
Dowd
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
8
Fantilli
Dowd
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
4
7
Fantilli
Dowd
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,179)
52.3% (6,036)
-7.6%
Power Play
51.4% (210)
56.1% (164)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (26)
44.1% (1,638)
-13.3%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +13.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Fantilli is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (811).
Fantilli shoots left. Dowd is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,158).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Dowd
Home
47.3% (1,209)
51.9% (3,917)
Away
42.9% (1,206)
49.5% (3,922)
By Period
Fantilli
Dowd
P1
43.8%
51.5%
P2
46.3%
50.4%
P3
45.9%
50.3%
OT
25.8%
45.9%
Final 5 min
43.9%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
45.1%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 19:13 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 14:44 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 3 | 10:20 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 14:57 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 1 | 19:30 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 05:38 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 05:25 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 16:03 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 14:36 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 07:50 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 07:42 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 00:37 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 1 | 18:33 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 1 | 06:51 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 1 | 03:36 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 19:40 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 07:50 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 17:45 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 17:40 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 09:33 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |