Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +14.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Fantilli wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 42.0% vs Aho 54.9% (-14.1%)
H2H factor
Fantilli leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 78.1%
Defensive zone
Aho 69.7%
Neutral zone
Aho 79.0%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 77.6%
22.4%
77.6%
Fantilli
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Fantilli
Aho
Last 10: Fantilli 6-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
3
Fantilli
Aho
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
1
0
Fantilli
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fantilli
3
1
Fantilli
Aho
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (934)
54.5% (870)
-13.8%
Power Play
52.1% (73)
62.4% (266)
-10.3%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (12)
37.1% (62)
-20.4%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +20.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Fantilli is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (687).
Fantilli shoots left. Aho is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (805).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Aho
Home
44.1% (488)
53.9% (603)
Away
38.6% (531)
56.8% (595)
By Period
Fantilli
Aho
P1
42.0%
54.1%
P2
43.0%
55.0%
P3
39.3%
57.4%
OT
11.1%
33.3%
Final 5 min
38.3%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
58.0%▲
51.0%
41.2%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 13:35 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 12:59 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 06:19 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 14:27 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 08:32 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 05:36 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 05:31 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 01:24 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 1 | 15:22 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 08:09 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |