Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.5% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.1% vs Aho 51.3% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 55.6%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 53.1%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 57.0%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 55.4%
55.4%
44.6%
Fantilli
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
9
(16 meetings)
7
9
Fantilli
Aho
Last 10: Fantilli 6-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
5
Fantilli
Aho
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
3
Fantilli
Aho
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fantilli
4
1
Fantilli
Aho
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (1,930)
50.1% (6,415)
-5.9%
Power Play
53.4% (163)
59.1% (1,297)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (24)
46.0% (446)
-12.7%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Fantilli is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,412).
Fantilli shoots left. Aho is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (5,145).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Aho
Home
47.5% (1,040)
52.4% (4,199)
Away
42.2% (1,077)
50.2% (3,959)
By Period
Fantilli
Aho
P1
43.9%
51.2%
P2
45.9%
52.1%
P3
45.4%
50.8%
OT
23.1%
48.9%
Final 5 min
43.9%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
58.0%▲
51.0%
44.8%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 11:56 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 13:35 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 12:59 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 06:19 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 14:27 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 08:32 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 05:36 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 05:31 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 01:24 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 1 | 15:22 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 08:09 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 2 | 18:08 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 2 | 08:41 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 2 | 04:52 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 2 | 04:46 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 1 | 16:03 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |