Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall. Gaudette wins 44.5% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudette 44.8% vs Kastelic 56.5% (-12.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gaudette 88.4%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 79.7%
Neutral zone
Gaudette 66.8%
Result
Adam Gaudette favored at 58.5%
58.5%
41.5%
Gaudette
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Gaudette
Kastelic
Last 6: Gaudette 2-4 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Gaudette
Kastelic
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
2
Gaudette
Kastelic
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Gaudette
Kastelic
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudette
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
44.0% (1,485)
57.0% (1,635)
-13.0%
Power Play
47.5% (183)
80.0% (25)
-32.5%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (15)
53.8% (279)
-7.1%
On power play, Kastelic has a +32.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Gaudette is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (481).
Gaudette shoots right. Kastelic is 58.5% vs right-shot opponents (494).
Home / Away
Gaudette
Kastelic
Home
46.0% (913)
58.7% (904)
Away
42.6% (770)
55.2% (1,035)
By Period
Gaudette
Kastelic
P1
44.9%
58.6%
P2
46.6%
56.5%
P3
41.4%
55.6%
OT
100.0%
53.8%
Final 5 min
46.9%
59.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudette
52.0%▲
48.5%
44.4%
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 14:15 | Offensive | Adam Gaudette |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 3 | 01:22 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 17:07 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 16:43 | Neutral | Adam Gaudette |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 09:09 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 01:49 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |