Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.6% vs 55.9%). Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Henrique wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 55.1% vs Hertl 55.4% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 75.1%
Defensive zone
Henrique 79.5%
Neutral zone
Hertl 50.7%
Result
Adam Henrique favored at 56.1%
56.1%
43.9%
Henrique
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Henrique
Hertl
Last 7: Henrique 3-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Henrique
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
3
1
Henrique
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (723)
54.1% (717)
+3.4%
Power Play
73.2% (56)
61.9% (210)
+11.3%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (231)
58.1% (31)
-12.6%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Henrique is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (725).
Henrique shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Henrique
Hertl
Home
56.4% (518)
58.1% (492)
Away
54.9% (492)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Henrique
Hertl
P1
56.0%
57.1%
P2
55.2%
54.0%
P3
56.2%
56.6%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.8%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
58.0%▲
52.5%
55.6%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 18:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 15:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 14:38 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 05:09 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 01:11 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 00:58 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 16:11 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |