Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Henrique on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Henrique wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.5% vs Hertl 57.5% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 93.9%
Defensive zone
Henrique 63.6%
Neutral zone
Hertl 73.4%
Result
Adam Henrique favored at 63.6%
63.6%
36.4%
Henrique
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Henrique
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
3
1
Henrique
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (395)
58.7% (858)
-3.3%
Power Play
50.0% (22)
55.8% (285)
-5.8%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (134)
62.9% (35)
-12.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Henrique is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (371).
Henrique shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Henrique
Hertl
Home
52.4% (227)
60.1% (599)
Away
55.2% (324)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Henrique
Hertl
P1
57.0%
52.4%
P2
52.5%
63.9%
P3
52.4%
58.5%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
47.8%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
50.0%▼
52.0%
54.1%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 10:06 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 08:55 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 13:57 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 05:59 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |