Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Henrique on offensive-zone draws (56% H2H, 50 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 50.6% vs Hertl 54.3% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Henrique leads 65-49 in 114 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 80.8%
Defensive zone
Hertl 58.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 67.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 69.8%
30.2%
69.8%
Henrique
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
65
-
49
(114 meetings)
65
49
Henrique
Hertl
Last 10: Henrique 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
28
22
Henrique
Hertl
50 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
24
20
Henrique
Hertl
44 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Henrique
13
7
Henrique
Hertl
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (9,546)
53.9% (8,303)
-3.2%
Power Play
54.5% (1,763)
59.2% (1,995)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (1,832)
46.3% (806)
-0.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Henrique is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (8,525).
Henrique shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Henrique
Hertl
Home
52.5% (6,430)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
48.8% (6,734)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Henrique
Hertl
P1
50.6%
53.6%
P2
51.4%
54.2%
P3
50.3%
55.3%
OT
40.6%
46.9%
Final 5 min
50.3%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
50.0%▼
52.0%
50.6%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 10:06 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 08:55 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 13:57 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 05:59 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 18:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 15:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 14:38 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 05:09 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 01:11 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 00:58 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 16:11 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 3 | 12:19 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 3 | 00:35 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 2 | 14:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 19:17 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 18:44 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 18:41 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 14:19 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 03:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 3 | 11:47 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |