Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 50.4% vs Aho 51.2% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 77.9%
Defensive zone
Lowry 81.8%
Neutral zone
Lowry 60.2%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 56.5%
56.5%
43.5%
Lowry
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Lowry
Aho
Last 9: Lowry 4-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
2
Lowry
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
2
3
Lowry
Aho
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (893)
48.5% (778)
+4.2%
Power Play
52.8% (72)
63.4% (191)
-10.6%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (215)
50.8% (65)
-10.8%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Lowry is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (750).
Lowry shoots left. Aho is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Lowry
Aho
Home
52.4% (597)
51.3% (530)
Away
48.4% (583)
51.4% (504)
By Period
Lowry
Aho
P1
48.5%
50.0%
P2
52.2%
51.3%
P3
50.5%
52.1%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
49.4%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
68.0%▲
55.5%
50.4%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 2022 | OT | 01:12 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 3 | 14:19 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 3 | 03:56 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 2 | 16:19 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 2 | 08:45 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 2 | 06:44 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 2 | 03:38 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 19:28 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 18:34 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |