Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (42.6% vs 43.1%). Iafallo wins 35.6% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Iafallo 45.0% vs Novak 43.6% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 61.0%
Defensive zone
Iafallo 56.3%
Neutral zone
Novak 55.8%
Result
Alex Iafallo favored at 56.3%
56.3%
43.7%
Iafallo
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Iafallo
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Iafallo
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Iafallo
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (174)
42.2% (1,366)
-2.0%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
53.3% (120)
+21.7%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (27)
50.0% (2)
-1.9%
On power play, Iafallo has a +21.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Iafallo is 35.6% vs left-shot opponents (135).
Iafallo shoots left. Novak is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (955).
Home / Away
Iafallo
Novak
Home
45.3% (106)
46.0% (737)
Away
39.8% (103)
40.3% (751)
By Period
Iafallo
Novak
P1
40.7%
43.9%
P2
45.7%
44.2%
P3
40.4%
40.9%
OT
100.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
41.2%
40.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Iafallo
48.0%▲
42.0%
42.6%
Novak
44.0%▬
43.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 18:32 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |