Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Newhook wins 43.3% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Newhook 42.3% vs Nelson 48.3% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Newhook 63.2%
Defensive zone
Newhook 50.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.5%
Result
Alex Newhook favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
Newhook
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
Newhook
Nelson
Last 10: Newhook 5-5 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Newhook
3
2
Newhook
Nelson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Newhook
2
1
Newhook
Nelson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
4
Newhook
Nelson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Newhook
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
41.7% (1,947)
47.9% (9,744)
-6.2%
Power Play
43.6% (211)
54.7% (1,149)
-11.1%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (18)
43.8% (790)
+0.6%
On power play, Nelson has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Newhook is 43.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,330).
Newhook shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Home / Away
Newhook
Nelson
Home
41.7% (1,076)
50.1% (5,878)
Away
42.1% (1,100)
46.5% (5,806)
By Period
Newhook
Nelson
P1
40.1%
48.7%
P2
42.2%
48.6%
P3
43.1%
47.7%
OT
80.0%
45.6%
Final 5 min
43.5%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Newhook
50.0%▲
43.0%
41.9%
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 11:00 | Neutral | Alex Newhook |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 01:09 | Defensive | Alex Newhook |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 01:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 07:14 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 18:54 | Offensive | Alex Newhook |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 18:48 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 15:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 3 | 01:09 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 2 | 18:47 | Defensive | Alex Newhook |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 2 | 00:43 | Offensive | Alex Newhook |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 08:33 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 04:52 | Offensive | Alex Newhook |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 00:46 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |