Alexander Kerfoot vs Connor McDavid
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Alexander Kerfoot holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 52.0% vs McDavid 47.9% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kerfoot 60.4%
Defensive zone
Kerfoot 84.5%
Neutral zone
Kerfoot 76.8%
Result
Alexander Kerfoot favored at 80.6%
80.6%
19.4%
Kerfoot
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
0
(4 meetings)
4
0
Kerfoot
McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
2
0
Kerfoot
McDavid
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
2
0
Kerfoot
McDavid
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (356)
47.7% (715)
+5.4%
Power Play
62.5% (24)
51.9% (52)
+10.6%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (114)
22.2% (9)
+26.0%
On penalty kill, Kerfoot has a +26.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Kerfoot is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (271).
Kerfoot shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
McDavid
Home
57.4% (235)
47.3% (387)
Away
47.9% (259)
48.1% (389)
By Period
Kerfoot
McDavid
P1
53.2%
47.6%
P2
53.3%
50.0%
P3
50.9%
45.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
54.0%▬
53.0%
52.4%
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2025 | 3 | 12:37 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 16:26 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:30 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |