Alexander Kerfoot vs Connor McDavid
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Alexander Kerfoot holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 50.4% vs McDavid 48.1% (+2.9%)
Offensive zone
McDavid 72.3%
Defensive zone
Kerfoot 64.3%
Neutral zone
Kerfoot 54.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Kerfoot
McDavid
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (115)
47.7% (686)
+6.2%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
49.3% (75)
+50.7%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (16)
48.9% (45)
-23.9%
On power play, Kerfoot has a +50.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Kerfoot is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (74).
Kerfoot shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
McDavid
Home
41.7% (60)
50.0% (412)
Away
58.3% (72)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Kerfoot
McDavid
P1
53.8%
48.0%
P2
50.0%
48.5%
P3
47.8%
47.1%
Final 5 min
56.5%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
54.0%▬
53.0%
50.8%
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%