Alexander Kerfoot vs Connor McDavid
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.8% vs 47.8%). Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings). Kerfoot wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 47.9% vs McDavid 47.8% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 19-15 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 58.3%
Defensive zone
Kerfoot 55.3%
Neutral zone
McDavid 50.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 51.4%
48.6%
51.4%
Kerfoot
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
19
(34 meetings)
15
19
Kerfoot
McDavid
Last 10: Kerfoot 6-4 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
8
Kerfoot
McDavid
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
5
4
Kerfoot
McDavid
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
8
7
Kerfoot
McDavid
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (2,849)
47.7% (8,394)
+1.1%
Power Play
48.7% (265)
52.1% (374)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
39.8% (389)
43.8% (281)
-4.0%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Kerfoot is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,125).
Kerfoot shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
McDavid
Home
51.0% (1,795)
49.3% (4,582)
Away
44.4% (1,708)
46.2% (4,467)
By Period
Kerfoot
McDavid
P1
47.4%
46.5%
P2
46.0%
48.7%
P3
50.5%
48.3%
OT
29.4%
42.2%
Final 5 min
49.0%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
54.0%▬
53.0%
47.8%
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2025 | 3 | 12:37 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 16:26 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:30 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 12:59 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 13:06 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 08:48 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 29, 2021 | 2 | 05:11 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 2 | 18:57 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 1 | 15:04 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 1 | 00:25 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 3 | 01:50 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 2 | 09:56 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 2 | 07:01 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 2 | 03:02 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 2 | 01:14 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 1 | 17:10 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 1 | 17:04 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 3 | 05:32 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |