Alexander Kerfoot vs Matt Duchene
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 50.4% vs Duchene 51.8% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 83.9%
Defensive zone
Kerfoot 54.1%
Neutral zone
Kerfoot 50.2%
Result
Alexander Kerfoot favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Kerfoot
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Kerfoot
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
2
0
Kerfoot
Duchene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
1
0
Kerfoot
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (115)
51.1% (366)
+2.8%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
61.5% (65)
+38.5%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (16)
16.7% (6)
+8.3%
On power play, Kerfoot has a +38.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Kerfoot is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (74).
Kerfoot shoots left. Duchene is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
Duchene
Home
41.7% (60)
51.7% (201)
Away
58.3% (72)
52.5% (236)
By Period
Kerfoot
Duchene
P1
53.8%
49.0%
P2
50.0%
57.1%
P3
47.8%
49.2%
Final 5 min
56.5%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
54.0%▬
53.0%
50.8%
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 07:20 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 04:31 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 18:36 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |