Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Copp 53.5% vs Hertl 57.4% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Copp 64.2%
Defensive zone
Copp 86.5%
Neutral zone
Copp 72.7%
Result
Andrew Copp favored at 75.0%
75.0%
25.0%
Copp
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Copp
Hertl
Last 7: Copp 1-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Copp
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Copp
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Copp
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Copp
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (728)
58.5% (845)
-4.1%
Power Play
56.0% (75)
56.2% (281)
-0.2%
Penalty Kill
45.8% (59)
62.9% (35)
-17.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +17.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Copp is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (526).
Copp shoots left. Hertl is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (719).
Home / Away
Copp
Hertl
Home
54.4% (441)
60.0% (582)
Away
53.4% (421)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Copp
Hertl
P1
52.0%
52.1%
P2
55.8%
63.6%
P3
54.2%
58.8%
OT
20.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
60.7%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Copp
54.0%▲
51.5%
53.9%
Hertl
64.0%▲
60.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | 3 | 13:19 | Defensive | Andrew Copp |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 3 | 13:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 3 | 09:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 2 | 15:39 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 16:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 16:14 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 06:40 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |