Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.3% vs Carrick 52.2% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cirelli 83.8%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 60.9%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 69.5%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 68.8%
68.8%
31.2%
Cirelli
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Cirelli
Carrick
Last 6: Cirelli 1-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Cirelli
Carrick
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
3
Cirelli
Carrick
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cirelli
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (5,739)
52.2% (2,544)
-2.5%
Power Play
56.9% (578)
61.3% (75)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (1,209)
50.8% (435)
-7.0%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Cirelli is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (2,874).
Cirelli shoots left. Carrick is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,211).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Carrick
Home
49.6% (3,838)
51.5% (1,477)
Away
49.1% (3,688)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Cirelli
Carrick
P1
49.9%
51.8%
P2
48.7%
52.3%
P3
49.3%
52.6%
OT
51.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.9%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
44.0%▼
49.5%
49.3%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 09:34 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Apr 7, 2025 | 3 | 14:44 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Apr 7, 2025 | 1 | 13:45 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 7, 2025 | 1 | 09:25 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 18:24 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 1 | 02:04 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |