Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (81% H2H, 16 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs right-shot opponents — Strome shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Strome 44.6% (+9.3%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 30-14 in 44 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 97.4%
Defensive zone
Matthews 94.3%
Neutral zone
Matthews 97.4%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 96.6%
96.6%
3.4%
Matthews
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
30
-
14
(44 meetings)
30
14
Matthews
Strome
Last 10: Matthews 8-2 Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
13
3
Matthews
Strome
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
8
4
Matthews
Strome
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
9
7
Matthews
Strome
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
44.2% (6,887)
+9.8%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
49.2% (855)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
41.5% (410)
+8.3%
On even strength, Matthews has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. Matthews is 53.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,705).
Matthews shoots left. Strome is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,773).
Home / Away
Matthews
Strome
Home
56.3% (5,065)
44.4% (4,077)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
44.8% (4,075)
By Period
Matthews
Strome
P1
55.5%
43.9%
P2
53.3%
45.4%
P3
52.8%
44.4%
OT
56.6%
46.3%
Final 5 min
54.1%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Strome
50.0%▲
45.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 17:47 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 05:42 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 05:28 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 1 | 05:36 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 19:32 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 17:54 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 13:30 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 00:08 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 14:53 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 11:03 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 12:20 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 12:16 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 1 | 14:04 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 30, 2022 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Oct 30, 2022 | 2 | 19:30 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 30, 2022 | 2 | 16:07 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Oct 30, 2022 | 2 | 11:25 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |