Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Groulx on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Groulx wins 41.4% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Groulx 44.1% vs Aho 51.3% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 97.7%
Defensive zone
Aho 80.4%
Neutral zone
Aho 84.6%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 84.7%
15.3%
84.7%
Groulx
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Groulx
Aho
Last 5: Groulx 4-1 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Groulx
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Groulx
3
0
Groulx
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Groulx
1
0
Groulx
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Groulx
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
44.8% (393)
50.2% (6,646)
-5.4%
Power Play
44.4% (9)
58.9% (1,310)
-14.5%
Penalty Kill
35.1% (94)
46.5% (465)
-11.4%
On power play, Aho has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Groulx is 41.4% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Groulx shoots left. Aho is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,317).
Home / Away
Groulx
Aho
Home
50.0% (244)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
36.1% (252)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
Groulx
Aho
P1
45.1%
51.1%
P2
43.9%
52.1%
P3
40.4%
50.8%
OT
33.3%
48.9%
Final 5 min
42.9%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Groulx
24.0%▼
37.5%
42.9%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2023 | 3 | 14:53 | Defensive | Bo Groulx |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 3 | 01:07 | Defensive | Bo Groulx |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 3 | 00:21 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Bo Groulx |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 1 | 13:56 | Defensive | Bo Groulx |