Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +17.5% FO% edge overall. Horvat wins 57.9% vs right-shot opponents — Mercer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 56.1% vs Mercer 41.9% (+17.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 83.1%
Defensive zone
Mercer 76.4%
Neutral zone
Mercer 81.9%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 79.8%
20.2%
79.8%
Horvat
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Horvat
Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
0
1
Horvat
Mercer
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
0
1
Horvat
Mercer
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (731)
38.8% (263)
+16.9%
Power Play
63.4% (243)
35.3% (17)
+28.1%
Penalty Kill
48.6% (107)
54.5% (11)
-5.9%
On power play, Horvat has a +28.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Horvat is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (447).
Horvat shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Home / Away
Horvat
Mercer
Home
59.4% (537)
35.2% (145)
Away
54.0% (544)
43.2% (146)
By Period
Horvat
Mercer
P1
59.9%
32.7%
P2
54.5%
42.7%
P3
56.1%
42.9%
Final 5 min
59.4%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
68.0%▲
57.5%
56.7%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 19:39 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 19:11 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |