Scouting Report
Tyler Toffoli holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Horvat wins 62.2% vs right-shot opponents — Toffoli shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 56.5% vs Toffoli 50.9% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toffoli 67.3%
Defensive zone
Toffoli 50.6%
Neutral zone
Toffoli 60.5%
Result
Tyler Toffoli favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Horvat
Toffoli
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Horvat
Toffoli
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toffoli
0
1
Horvat
Toffoli
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Toffoli
Edge
Even Strength
54.7% (1,126)
62.5% (8)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (217)
50.0% (4)
+2.1%
On even strength, Toffoli has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toffoli shoots right. Horvat is 62.2% vs right-shot opponents (574).
Horvat shoots left. Toffoli is 77.8% vs left-shot opponents (9).
Home / Away
Horvat
Toffoli
Home
59.8% (853)
80.0% (5)
Away
53.8% (832)
42.9% (7)
By Period
Horvat
Toffoli
P1
55.0%
60.0%
P2
58.3%
75.0%
P3
57.8%
33.3%
Final 5 min
59.4%
0.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
68.0%▲
57.5%
56.9%
Toffoli
38.0%▼
42.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 02:44 | Defensive | Tyler Toffoli |