Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +13.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Horvat on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Horvat wins 56.6% vs right-shot opponents — Toffoli shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 54.4% vs Toffoli 43.0% (+13.7%)
H2H factor
Horvat leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Toffoli 56.9%
Defensive zone
Horvat 87.3%
Neutral zone
Horvat 66.5%
Result
Bo Horvat favored at 69.3%
69.3%
30.7%
Horvat
Toffoli
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Horvat
Toffoli
Last 10: Horvat 5-5 Toffoli
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toffoli
1
3
Horvat
Toffoli
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
5
1
Horvat
Toffoli
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toffoli
0
1
Horvat
Toffoli
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Toffoli
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (12,655)
41.2% (274)
+12.7%
Power Play
61.1% (2,712)
45.0% (40)
+16.1%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (1,500)
26.3% (19)
+20.9%
On penalty kill, Horvat has a +20.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toffoli shoots right. Horvat is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (6,120).
Horvat shoots left. Toffoli is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (225).
Home / Away
Horvat
Toffoli
Home
56.1% (8,423)
44.5% (155)
Away
52.9% (8,445)
37.6% (178)
By Period
Horvat
Toffoli
P1
54.1%
47.4%
P2
54.5%
39.8%
P3
55.0%
32.9%
OT
49.6%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
33.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
68.0%▲
57.5%
54.5%
Toffoli
38.0%▼
42.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2023 | 1 | 06:24 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 02:44 | Defensive | Tyler Toffoli |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 2 | 10:38 | Offensive | Tyler Toffoli |
| Nov 29, 2021 | 1 | 00:51 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 3 | 14:43 | Offensive | Tyler Toffoli |
| Feb 1, 2021 | 1 | 14:56 | Offensive | Tyler Toffoli |
| Jan 23, 2021 | 3 | 15:16 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 23, 2021 | 2 | 11:19 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 21, 2021 | 2 | 12:18 | Neutral | Tyler Toffoli |
| Jan 20, 2021 | 3 | 06:19 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 28, 2019 | 2 | 14:02 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |