Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Jenner wins 44.7% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 51.1% vs Evans 55.0% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jenner 82.6%
Defensive zone
Evans 65.9%
Neutral zone
Jenner 57.5%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 58.1%
41.9%
58.1%
Jenner
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Jenner
Evans
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
0
2
Jenner
Evans
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jenner
1
0
Jenner
Evans
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (265)
55.6% (522)
-4.3%
Power Play
54.2% (24)
72.7% (11)
-18.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (20)
55.2% (210)
-5.2%
On power play, Evans has a +18.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Jenner is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (94).
Jenner shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Home / Away
Jenner
Evans
Home
52.7% (165)
54.7% (402)
Away
50.0% (144)
56.9% (341)
By Period
Jenner
Evans
P1
49.0%
57.9%
P2
45.0%
55.2%
P3
59.5%
53.6%
Final 5 min
55.4%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
48.5%
51.5%
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 13:49 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 09:09 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 02:37 | Defensive | Jake Evans |