Scouting Report
Boone Jenner holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Jenner wins 57.5% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 53.9% vs Pavelski 50.9% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Jenner 52.0%
Defensive zone
Jenner 51.9%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 56.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
Jenner
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Jenner
Pavelski
Last 10: Jenner 4-6 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Jenner
Pavelski
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Jenner
Pavelski
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
4
Jenner
Pavelski
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (775)
51.5% (594)
+3.0%
Power Play
59.1% (198)
51.7% (87)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (140)
28.6% (14)
+17.8%
On penalty kill, Jenner has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Jenner is 57.5% vs right-shot opponents (447).
Jenner shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Home / Away
Jenner
Pavelski
Home
52.9% (512)
53.1% (339)
Away
55.4% (601)
49.2% (356)
By Period
Jenner
Pavelski
P1
55.0%
53.8%
P2
54.5%
47.8%
P3
53.6%
50.2%
OT
52.6%
71.4%
Final 5 min
53.5%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
48.0%▼
50.5%
54.3%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 13:16 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 11:50 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 04:48 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 00:27 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 09:29 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 06:29 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 03:41 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 00:46 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 00:40 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 1 | 08:16 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 1 | 04:37 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |