Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tkachuk wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 51.0% vs Tavares 57.7% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 76.9%
Defensive zone
Tavares 80.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 50.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 57.7%
42.3%
57.7%
Tkachuk
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Tkachuk
Tavares
Last 5: Tkachuk 2-3 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
0
Tkachuk
Tavares
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
3
Tkachuk
Tavares
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (194)
57.7% (998)
-6.7%
Power Play
51.7% (151)
60.5% (271)
-8.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
56.4% (39)
-6.4%
On power play, Tavares has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Tkachuk is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (218).
Tkachuk shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Tavares
Home
50.0% (140)
59.7% (610)
Away
52.2% (207)
57.0% (698)
By Period
Tkachuk
Tavares
P1
54.3%
57.2%
P2
50.0%
58.5%
P3
49.5%
59.4%
OT
33.3%
46.7%
Final 5 min
51.1%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▬
57.0%
51.3%
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 01:59 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 07:22 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 14:04 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 2 | 09:30 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 1 | 10:33 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |