Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.9% vs 57.3%). Tkachuk wins 61.2% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 55.0% vs Tavares 56.8% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 72.0%
Defensive zone
Tavares 77.2%
Neutral zone
Tavares 58.7%
Result
John Tavares favored at 60.8%
39.2%
60.8%
Tkachuk
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Tkachuk
Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Tavares
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
2
Tkachuk
Tavares
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (153)
57.7% (975)
-2.8%
Power Play
59.4% (106)
56.0% (250)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
52.2% (23)
+47.8%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +47.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Tkachuk is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (183).
Tkachuk shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Tavares
Home
50.8% (128)
57.4% (636)
Away
62.9% (132)
57.2% (612)
By Period
Tkachuk
Tavares
P1
56.6%
57.5%
P2
58.9%
56.9%
P3
56.2%
57.5%
OT
50.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
55.2%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
56.9%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 15:04 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 16:38 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 17:38 | Defensive | John Tavares |