Scouting Report
Brayden Schenn holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schenn 53.2% vs McDavid 48.1% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schenn 62.3%
Defensive zone
Schenn 76.5%
Neutral zone
Schenn 79.1%
Result
Brayden Schenn favored at 70.1%
70.1%
29.9%
Schenn
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Schenn
McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schenn
2
0
Schenn
McDavid
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
0
1
Schenn
McDavid
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schenn
1
0
Schenn
McDavid
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schenn
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (656)
47.7% (686)
+3.8%
Power Play
63.6% (107)
49.3% (75)
+14.3%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (24)
48.9% (45)
+17.8%
On penalty kill, Schenn has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Schenn is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (495).
Schenn shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
Home / Away
Schenn
McDavid
Home
53.9% (412)
50.0% (412)
Away
53.3% (375)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Schenn
McDavid
P1
49.6%
48.0%
P2
52.0%
48.5%
P3
58.1%
47.1%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schenn
52.0%▬
52.5%
53.6%
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | 2 | 18:19 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 2 | 13:40 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 1 | 07:01 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 1 | 06:12 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |