Scouting Report
Brett Howden holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Howden wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 51.1% vs Nelson 47.5% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 58.4%
Defensive zone
Howden 69.1%
Neutral zone
Howden 55.8%
Result
Brett Howden favored at 60.3%
60.3%
39.7%
Howden
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Howden
Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Howden
1
0
Howden
Nelson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Howden
Nelson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (214)
46.9% (915)
+6.4%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
57.4% (94)
-24.1%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (10)
25.0% (28)
-5.0%
On power play, Nelson has a +24.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Howden is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (139).
Howden shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Home / Away
Howden
Nelson
Home
55.2% (96)
48.9% (521)
Away
48.9% (131)
45.5% (516)
By Period
Howden
Nelson
P1
42.0%
45.9%
P2
55.8%
48.0%
P3
55.6%
48.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
45.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
46.0%▬
45.0%
51.5%
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
47.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 13:17 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 09:14 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 06:19 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |