Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Howden wins 53.1% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 49.8% vs Nelson 50.8% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 50.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 50.7%
Neutral zone
Howden 51.2%
Result
Brett Howden favored at 50.4%
50.4%
49.6%
Howden
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Howden
Nelson
Last 6: Howden 3-3 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Howden
2
0
Howden
Nelson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Howden
Nelson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
2
Howden
Nelson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (402)
50.9% (928)
-1.1%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
59.8% (179)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (34)
43.4% (205)
+3.7%
On power play, Nelson has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Howden is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (275).
Howden shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Home / Away
Howden
Nelson
Home
46.5% (217)
52.9% (654)
Away
52.7% (237)
48.9% (658)
By Period
Howden
Nelson
P1
51.4%
48.4%
P2
51.6%
54.3%
P3
48.5%
50.5%
OT
26.7%
41.2%
Final 5 min
50.5%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
46.0%▬
45.0%
49.8%
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 11:36 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 01:36 | Offensive | Brett Howden |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 18:22 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 12:59 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 18:41 | Offensive | Brett Howden |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 12:53 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |