Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.9% vs 48.3%). Look for Howden on offensive-zone draws (56% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 48.9% vs Nelson 48.3% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 16-15 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 57.1%
Defensive zone
Howden 59.7%
Neutral zone
Howden 55.0%
Result
Brett Howden favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Howden
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
16
(31 meetings)
15
16
Howden
Nelson
Last 10: Howden 5-5 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Howden
5
4
Howden
Nelson
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
5
Howden
Nelson
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
7
Howden
Nelson
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (2,926)
47.9% (9,744)
+1.6%
Power Play
50.5% (111)
54.7% (1,149)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
43.1% (320)
43.8% (790)
-0.7%
On power play, Nelson has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Howden is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,170).
Howden shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Home / Away
Howden
Nelson
Home
48.2% (1,630)
50.1% (5,878)
Away
49.6% (1,727)
46.5% (5,806)
By Period
Howden
Nelson
P1
49.5%
48.7%
P2
47.9%
48.6%
P3
49.8%
47.7%
OT
35.5%
45.6%
Final 5 min
48.7%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
46.0%▬
45.0%
48.9%
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 11:36 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 01:36 | Offensive | Brett Howden |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 18:22 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 12:59 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 18:41 | Offensive | Brett Howden |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 12:53 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 02:50 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 13:17 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 09:14 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 06:19 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 2 | 03:45 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 1 | 03:24 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 3 | 16:40 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 2 | 12:48 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 3 | 15:56 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 2 | 13:48 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 14, 2021 | 3 | 18:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 14, 2021 | 3 | 08:45 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 14, 2021 | 2 | 16:25 | Offensive | Brett Howden |
| Jan 14, 2021 | 2 | 13:24 | Defensive | Brett Howden |