Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Howden wins 53.1% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 49.8% vs Sturm 53.6% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Howden 71.3%
Defensive zone
Sturm 71.5%
Neutral zone
Howden 52.6%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 50.1%
49.9%
50.1%
Howden
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Howden
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Howden
1
0
Howden
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Howden
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (402)
54.6% (271)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (34)
54.4% (90)
-7.3%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Howden is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (275).
Howden shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Howden
Sturm
Home
46.5% (217)
53.0% (168)
Away
52.7% (237)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Howden
Sturm
P1
51.4%
58.2%
P2
51.6%
53.2%
P3
48.5%
52.3%
OT
26.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
46.0%▬
45.0%
49.8%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 03:19 | Offensive | Brett Howden |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 16:40 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |