Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Howden on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 48.9% vs Sturm 56.1% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
Howden leads 12-6 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Sturm 73.1%
Defensive zone
Sturm 92.9%
Neutral zone
Sturm 82.4%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 84.0%
16.0%
84.0%
Howden
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
6
(18 meetings)
12
6
Howden
Sturm
Last 10: Howden 5-5 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Howden
6
1
Howden
Sturm
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
4
5
Howden
Sturm
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Howden
2
0
Howden
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (2,926)
57.1% (2,719)
-7.6%
Power Play
50.5% (111)
61.3% (62)
-10.8%
Penalty Kill
43.1% (320)
51.0% (498)
-7.9%
On power play, Sturm has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Howden is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,170).
Howden shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Howden
Sturm
Home
48.2% (1,630)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
49.6% (1,727)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Howden
Sturm
P1
49.5%
56.5%
P2
47.9%
54.9%
P3
49.8%
57.4%
OT
35.5%
60.6%
Final 5 min
48.7%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
46.0%▬
45.0%
48.9%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 03:19 | Offensive | Brett Howden |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 16:40 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 2 | 04:52 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 14:42 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 3 | 19:22 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 3 | 18:52 | Offensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 2 | 09:27 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 1 | 17:08 | Offensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 3 | 13:57 | Offensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 1 | 16:48 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 3 | 14:15 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 3 | 08:50 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 3 | 06:09 | Offensive | Brett Howden |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 2 | 18:06 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 3 | 02:26 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 3 | 02:08 | Offensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 1 | 16:24 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 1 | 03:07 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |