Scouting Report
Claude Giroux holds a +12.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Giroux 61.3% (-12.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 51.0%
Defensive zone
Giroux 51.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 57.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Nelson
Giroux
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Nelson
Giroux
Last 6: Nelson 3-3 Giroux
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Giroux
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Giroux
0
2
Nelson
Giroux
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Giroux
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Giroux
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
61.0% (420)
-10.1%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
66.4% (113)
-6.6%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
65.6% (163)
-22.2%
On penalty kill, Giroux has a +22.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Giroux shoots right. Nelson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Giroux is 63.6% vs left-shot opponents (550).
Home / Away
Nelson
Giroux
Home
52.9% (654)
66.6% (350)
Away
48.9% (658)
59.2% (346)
By Period
Nelson
Giroux
P1
48.4%
62.1%
P2
54.3%
64.7%
P3
50.5%
61.6%
OT
41.2%
69.2%
Final 5 min
51.9%
61.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Giroux
70.0%▲
57.0%
62.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 17:59 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 12:53 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 05:55 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 11:02 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 06:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |