Scouting Report
Claude Giroux holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Giroux on defensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 67 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Giroux 56.9% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Giroux leads 95-70 in 165 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 88.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 84.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 78.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 83.9%
83.9%
16.1%
Nelson
Giroux
Head-to-Head Record
70
-
95
(165 meetings)
70
95
Nelson
Giroux
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Giroux
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
26
23
Nelson
Giroux
49 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Giroux
18
49
Nelson
Giroux
67 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
26
23
Nelson
Giroux
49 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Giroux
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
55.8% (13,886)
-7.9%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
60.5% (4,081)
-5.8%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
57.5% (2,528)
-13.7%
On penalty kill, Giroux has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Giroux shoots right. Nelson is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (4,097).
Nelson shoots left. Giroux is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (14,401).
Home / Away
Nelson
Giroux
Home
50.1% (5,878)
59.2% (10,265)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
54.6% (10,270)
By Period
Nelson
Giroux
P1
48.7%
57.5%
P2
48.6%
56.2%
P3
47.7%
57.3%
OT
45.6%
51.5%
Final 5 min
48.0%
58.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Giroux
70.0%▲
57.0%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 17:59 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 12:53 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 05:55 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 11:02 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 06:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 15:55 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 15:41 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 14:47 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 07:05 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 01:42 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 13:42 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 10:16 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 18:39 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 18:34 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 17:07 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 07:59 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 08:08 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 16:04 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 04:16 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |