Scouting Report
Evgeni Malkin holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Malkin on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Malkin 49.4% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Malkin leads 11-7 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Malkin 55.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 61.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 59.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 54.7%
54.7%
45.3%
Nelson
Malkin
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
11
(18 meetings)
7
11
Nelson
Malkin
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Malkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
1
6
Nelson
Malkin
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
3
Nelson
Malkin
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Malkin
1
2
Nelson
Malkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Malkin
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
49.0% (811)
-2.1%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
55.8% (43)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
50.0% (2)
-25.0%
On penalty kill, Malkin has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Malkin shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Malkin is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (568).
Home / Away
Nelson
Malkin
Home
48.9% (521)
52.3% (438)
Away
45.5% (516)
46.2% (418)
By Period
Nelson
Malkin
P1
45.9%
51.3%
P2
48.0%
50.8%
P3
48.0%
45.0%
OT
33.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
47.3%
Malkin
48.0%▬
47.0%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2023 | 1 | 04:25 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 20, 2023 | 3 | 01:20 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 20, 2023 | 2 | 10:12 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 20, 2023 | 2 | 09:50 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 20, 2023 | 2 | 06:43 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 3 | 17:08 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 3 | 08:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 3 | 01:10 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 2 | 19:32 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 1 | 12:38 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 1 | 07:02 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 1 | 03:57 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 03:08 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 03:01 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 00:30 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 10:24 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 00:56 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 00:50 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |