Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Malkin 46.1% (+6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 67.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 71.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.7%
51.7%
48.3%
Nelson
Malkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Nelson
Malkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
0
1
Nelson
Malkin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Malkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Malkin
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
45.7% (219)
+5.2%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
34.6% (26)
+25.2%
On power play, Nelson has a +25.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Malkin shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Malkin is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (177).
Home / Away
Nelson
Malkin
Home
52.9% (654)
50.4% (113)
Away
48.9% (658)
39.4% (132)
By Period
Nelson
Malkin
P1
48.4%
47.7%
P2
54.3%
44.9%
P3
50.5%
40.0%
OT
41.2%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
35.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 14:11 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 08:39 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |