Scouting Report
Justin Danforth holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Danforth 51.1% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 53.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 60.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 54.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 56.0%
56.0%
44.0%
Nelson
Danforth
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Nelson
Danforth
Last 6: Nelson 3-3 Danforth
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Danforth
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Danforth
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Danforth
0
1
Nelson
Danforth
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Danforth
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
78.9% (19)
-28.0%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
100.0% (1)
-40.2%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
9.1% (11)
+34.3%
On power play, Danforth has a +40.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Danforth shoots right. Nelson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Danforth is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (21).
Home / Away
Nelson
Danforth
Home
52.9% (654)
50.0% (24)
Away
48.9% (658)
71.4% (7)
By Period
Nelson
Danforth
P1
48.4%
55.6%
P2
54.3%
62.5%
P3
50.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
75.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Danforth
54.0%▲
51.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 16:12 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 08:54 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 00:28 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 00:23 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 13:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 06:08 | Offensive | Justin Danforth |