Brock Nelson vs Justin Danforth
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Justin Danforth holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Danforth shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.1% vs Danforth 49.8% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Danforth leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 68.2%
Defensive zone
Danforth 65.9%
Neutral zone
Danforth 51.2%
Result
Justin Danforth favored at 50.9%
49.1%
50.9%
Nelson
Danforth
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Nelson
Danforth
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Danforth
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Danforth
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Danforth
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Danforth
1
2
Nelson
Danforth
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Danforth
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (9,510)
51.8% (1,018)
-4.0%
Power Play
54.1% (1,082)
50.0% (36)
+4.1%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (728)
40.1% (207)
+3.4%
On power play, Nelson has a +4.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Danforth shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,964).
Nelson shoots left. Danforth is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (937).
Home / Away
Nelson
Danforth
Home
49.8% (5,696)
51.4% (619)
Away
46.4% (5,625)
48.3% (642)
By Period
Nelson
Danforth
P1
48.6%
49.1%
P2
48.4%
51.4%
P3
47.4%
48.3%
OT
46.4%
64.3%
Final 5 min
47.4%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
48.1%
Danforth
54.0%▲
51.5%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 16:12 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 08:54 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 00:28 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 00:23 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 13:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 06:08 | Offensive | Justin Danforth |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 18:05 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 3 | 10:14 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 3 | 04:24 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 1 | 13:48 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 2 | 05:22 | Offensive | Justin Danforth |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 1 | 10:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |