Brock Nelson vs Justin Danforth
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Justin Danforth holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Danforth 49.8% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Danforth leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 67.6%
Defensive zone
Danforth 65.7%
Neutral zone
Danforth 51.4%
Result
Justin Danforth favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Nelson
Danforth
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Nelson
Danforth
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Danforth
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Danforth
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Danforth
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Danforth
1
2
Nelson
Danforth
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Danforth
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
51.8% (1,018)
-3.9%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
50.0% (36)
+4.7%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
40.1% (207)
+3.7%
On power play, Nelson has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Danforth shoots right. Nelson is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (4,097).
Nelson shoots left. Danforth is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (937).
Home / Away
Nelson
Danforth
Home
50.1% (5,878)
51.4% (619)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
48.3% (642)
By Period
Nelson
Danforth
P1
48.7%
49.1%
P2
48.6%
51.4%
P3
47.7%
48.3%
OT
45.6%
64.3%
Final 5 min
48.0%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Danforth
54.0%▲
51.5%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 16:12 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 08:54 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 00:28 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 00:23 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 13:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 06:08 | Offensive | Justin Danforth |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 18:05 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 3 | 10:14 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 3 | 04:24 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 1 | 13:48 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 2 | 05:22 | Offensive | Justin Danforth |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 1 | 10:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |